98th Oscars: Stellan Skarsgård vs Sean Penn Predictions

Stellan Skarsgård and Sean Penn Lock Horns for Supporting Actor Oscar

The 98th Academy Awards race is a dead heat as Stellan Skarsgård and Sean Penn split major precursor wins for their 2025 performances.

Ryan Kowalski

Mar 11, 2026, 3:03 PM PT · 2 min read

Stellan Skarsgård — Photo: John Bauld from Toronto, Canada / CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons

THE RUNDOWN

Stellan Skarsgård is nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Sentimental Value.
Skarsgård secured an early lead with a Golden Globe win this season.
Sean Penn has emerged as a frontrunner following BAFTA and SAG Award wins.
The 98th Academy Awards will determine the winner of this split race.

The race for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards has narrowed down to a high-stakes showdown between two Hollywood heavyweights. Stellan Skarsgård is currently a top contender for his performance in the 2025 drama Sentimental Value. Directed by Joachim Trier, the film has earned widespread critical acclaim, positioning Skarsgård as a legacy favorite after his recent Golden Globe win for the role.

However, the path to Oscar gold is far from guaranteed. Sean Penn has surged in momentum following a string of major victories during the winter awards circuit. Penn recently took home trophies at both the BAFTAs and the Screen Actors Guild Awards (The Actor), creating a significant split among industry pundits and Oscar voters. While Skarsgård held the early lead in the season, Penn’s late-season sweep has turned the category into one of the night's biggest toss-ups.

Industry experts are now divided between Skarsgård’s nuanced turn in Trier's family drama and Penn's powerhouse performance. With the 98th Academy Awards ceremony fast approaching, the competition remains too close to call. Regardless of who takes the stage, both actors have solidified their status as the dominant forces of the 2025 film season, leaving fans and critics eagerly awaiting the final envelope opening.